It's been a rough couple of months, but I'm in hopes that summer will bring in some changes.

Ok, we now have the study we need using real world data and official model data:

The trend speaks for itself. Predicted warming has not occurred and the actual temperatures are all more than one standard deviation below even the fixed 2000 CO2 levels (orange curve). All 6 annual temperatures lie below all scenario curves. The quoted error on a single measurement is 0.05 deg.C so we can now calculate the probability of these measurements being a statistical fluctuation.

year sigma probability
2006 1 0.32
2007 3 0.001
2008 4 0.0001
2009 2 0.04
2010 2 0.04
2011 6 <0.00001

The total probability that IPCC predictions are correct but the data points are just a fluctuation is vanishingly small ~ 10^-14 ! It is therefore possible to state with over 90% confidence that the IPCC 2007 model predictions are incorrect and exaggerate any warming.

I realize that using scientific studies to disprove hypotheses is foreign to many people, but as it turns out, such things have been useful before in the history of science. Further discussion of this result in context is here at Strata-sphere which takes in the current scene more comprehensively, and notes a disturbing trend: global warming supporters are increasingly telling bigger and bigger lies and heading into criminal fraud to support their hypothesis. This trend demonstrates that they are not doing science, but policy. And policy questions are open to discussion by everyone, perhaps especially by those not blinded by science.

I'm open to collect on those dinner bets, now.

In the middle of the mixed up day, a decision that worked out well. I decided to have a picnic lunch.

Bought: one small wheel of gouda cheese
one green apple
brought my liter of water, a pocketknife, and a napkin.
Sliced the cheese and the apple.

It was excellent. And different. And worth the walk to the little park down the street.

So I decided it was worth sharing. Anyone else have ideas for easy picnics? Preferably cheap?

We have had quick and dirty proofs that climate change was not occurring. We have had point by point refutations of climate change citing peer-reviewed studies. We have had revelations of the wonky, poorly designed software that the climate scientists were using. The Met Office has said that temperatures have not increased during the past 15 years, though CO2 has.

Now we have one of the IPCC lead scientists quitting because "The climate catastrophe is not occurring" and deciding to write the book on all the bad science writing that supported this bad conclusion.

Today, I want new scientific findings to be included in the climate debate. It would then become clear that the simple equation that CO2 and other man-made greenhouse gases are almost exclusively responsible for climate change is unsustainable. It hasn't gotten any warmer on this planet in almost 14 years, despite continued increases in CO2 emissions. Established climate science has to come up with an answer to that.

...

The fear mongers are still shaping the political debate. According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change, environmentally minded countries should forcibly bring about reduced consumption for the sake of protecting the climate. This takes us in the direction of an environmental dictatorship. And the fearmongering is also beginning to take effect. When I was in a restaurant recently, I overheard a woman at the next table telling her children that it's wrong to eat an Argentine steak -- because of the climate. That's when I ask myself: How could we have come to this point?

We get here because there are people who have decided that the remedy to any problem is to give them more power. This was just a hobby horse, not science. They will come up with another problem soon, and declare that the only solution to that problem is to give them more power.

Probably the most interesting article I've read in the past week was this one about healing fractures with putty -- not every day putty, but putty made of stem cells and an associated protein in a gel medium.

Here's the dope:

To start the bone regeneration process, the RBC used adult stem cells that produce a protein involved in bone healing and generation. They then incorporated them into a gel, combining the healing properties into something Stice calls "fracture putty."

With Peroni's assistance, the Houston-based team used a stabilizing device and inserted putty into fractures in rats. Video of the healed animals at two weeks shows the rats running around and standing on their hind legs with no evidence of injury. The RBC researchers are testing the material in pigs and sheep, too.

The funny part of the article? They're worried about losing government funding, apparently unaware of the money that would be thrown their way to commercialize this. Boneheads. No one told them that there are people who'd be interested in this. But then, they're in a University, so ignorance is excusable.

Buying legislators is one of those pastimes businesses engage in on an ongoing basis: and apparently the combine has now targeted Canada:

Canada's term of copyright meets the international standard of life of the author plus 50 years, which has now become a competitive advantage when compared to the United States, Australia, and Europe, which have copyright terms that extend an additional 20 years (without any evidence of additional public benefits).

In an interesting coincidence, the Canadian government filed notice of a public consultation on December 31, 2011 on the possible Canadian entry into the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiations, trade talks that could result in an extension in the term of copyright that would mean nothing new would enter the Canadian public domain until 2032 or beyond.

Good luck, Canada!

UPDATE: Someone always says things better than I do!

The Gods of the Copybook Headings




AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.

We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.

We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.

With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.

When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."

On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."

In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;

And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!

--Rudyard Kipling

An interesting cri de cour:

“I think the whole situation is nutty,” said Jan O’Connell, a 47-year-old artist from Los Angeles. “Somebody’s got to save us, and if the government can’t, who can?”

A choice of words that might perhaps be best addressed to your parish priest.

From here, where similar failures to understand bubble.

Black Friday Deals are out for those looking ahead to Christmas shopping. I, as usual, am waiting until holiday crowds give me the feeling of trying to make a touchdown from a kickoff.

Spending more for less | percent, time, students - Opinion - The Orange County Register brings up a key statistic: "there are fewer than 13 students per full-time administrator at the top public universities." This doesn't include part-time administrative staff, who are there to take the load from those administrators who lose track of their 13 students.

Oh, but what about teachers? Aren't they important? Well, according to this report (PDF), staff is where the action is at. We shouldn't worry about teachers. After all, only the Associate and Full Professors have a big salary, and it's for writing obscure articles in self-published journals to promote themselves to their colleagues, not for teaching. We have graduate students for that.

Obviously, the poor, beleaguered administrators need all the help they can get.

Pesky students. Why are they always underfoot, anyway?

A Tax On Christmas Trees In Order To Promote Christmas Trees? Thanks, Mr. President

Gosh, just what we needed! The government, having already hired its quota of deadbeat relatives to act as bunny inspectors, comes up with a new program: Christmas Tree PR! And, since it's the government, it doesn't have to get clients like an ordinary PR firm -- it can just impose taxes and say that's what they're going for. Some people have way too much time on their hands, and we're paying for it.

Talk about a reason to defund the Agriculture Department.

Liberal Fascism by Jonah Goldberg is worth reading, quite illuminating, and useful for those of us who tend to let people define themselves but not allow them to define others. The quotes of political figures by themselves make it an interesting book.

For those who have decided they already know their cause, so further historical research is unnecessary, it is not recommended.

The post-racial America of Ann Coulter and Pat Buchanan - The Washington Post is possibly the best example of indirect demonstration. No, he hasn't demonstrated that whites own blacks. Or that they think they do. Anyone around a family and hearing a reference to "our Neville" knows that Neville is a member of the family, or group that the speaker is, not that Neville is a slave.

But Mr. King is demonstrating something else. And there is a choice in understanding what he is demonstrating. Charitably, he is demonstrating the results of an inadequate education: he simply doesn't know any better. More realistically, he is demonstrating bad faith argumentation, or, to use the technical term, bullshit. He is using his sentences without regard to their truth or falsity to see if he can make his readers act in a certain way.

I'm picking bullshit.

What kind of Christmas shopping season do we expect?

Well, I'm noting that Amazon thinks you need longer to appreciate them. Maybe.

Check it out.

Early Black Friday Deals at Amazon

How else can I describe the latest campaign by Senator Feinstein and a "Breast Cancer Fund" which, oddly, seems to do little other than advocate for the control of things not strongly associated with breast cancer, but which sound bad.

I ought to amplify that last. When discussing breast cancer, the American Cancer Society has this note under risk factors:

Chemicals in the environment
....
This issue understandably invokes a great deal of public concern, but at this time research does not show a clear link between breast cancer risk and exposure to these substances. Unfortunately, studying such effects in humans is difficult. More research is needed to better define the possible health effects of these and similar substances.

In other words, the Breast Cancer Fund (Motto: "Help us expose the environmental causes of breast cancer. Together we can stop this disease before it starts") is flailing around in the wrong direction, and wasting resources that could be better spent on the already well-established major risk factors, and amelioration of treatment, which is possible now. Sounds like a waste of money to me, though a good opportunity to sound self-righteous. Their page on BPA sounds like the usual "shotgun" kind of study where someone notes a widespread chemical and a widespread disease and makes a link. Studies like that are useful in generating hypotheses to test, not so useful in drawing conclusions -- but that's what has been done here. Cause has been inferred without, as far as I have seen, properly substantiating it. There are reasons to suppose it's not involved, primarily because the body appears to be well-adapted to get rid of it in the urine.

But who cares about that? The Breast Cancer Fund's study was that people eating a Whole Foods Market appropriate diet don't have to worry about excess BPA exposure. So all we need to do is subsidize the widespread existence of Whole Food Markets and give poor people the opportunity to dine on tofu and arugula, and everything will be lovely. Those who have been people pinching every penny to get through the month may have other things to say about that, but, hey, they're poor, so no one cares if we make their lives more expensive, cutting back other opportunities, right?

There are other studies that indicate that BPA serves as a key improvement in the delivery of food across this country, preventing can corrosion and bacterial problems, and has no replacement that is as effective, but, after all, it's one of those "chemicals" and everyone knows they are bad, right?

End of rant. I think that in the area of tradeoffs, where we all live, BPA proves its value until something better comes along. No one seems to be doing that research -- instead, silly studies like these get funded, and omnibus bills designed to make everything more expensive and more risky are threatened. That's Washington for you.

Zombie » Day of FAIL: Nationwide anti-capitalist revolution flops is the best coverage of what "days of rage" turned into: a fiasco.

Anti-Wall Street protest fizzles, as fewer than 300 show up - NYPOST.com Just following up yesterday's post. I'd expect an explosion of rage afterwards, when they realize that their "day of rage" didn't even get a full page of coverage.

Just to see if it works I suppose: either we get revolution, or a demand for better public restrooms on Wall & Broadway. Which would you pick?

I've been listening to the radio more as I drive from place to place trying to put my latest business together (on which, more later). I think Glenn Beck is the winner for drivetime in my area, not least because whenever he says something outrageous, one of the people in the studio quickly responds by reading part of "the statement". For your reference,, it consists of:

Statement
The following is a statement from Mercury Radio Arts regarding the latest comment from Glenn Beck:

First of all, all of us are imperfect. (1) Glenn is really a very nice guy and he didn’t really mean it. (2) Besides, he’s very passionate about it (3), and it was the product of an emotional discussion. (4) We should all remember that this is not the sum total of this particular artists work. (5) I know you’d like to focus on language (6), but we should focus on the actions we can take to grow the economy and create jobs, instead of focusing on Kabuki theater. (7)


Which picks up, at each number, a referenced story by those whom Glenn has criticized and the apology, or non-apology, that followed. Have fun clicking the links once you're there.

It's nice to laugh while you're driving.

Obama said that he couldn't guarantee payment of social security this August. Paul Krugman has said there is money dedicated to that purpose that could not be diverted. One of the two doesn't know what he's talking about. Any thoughts on which one?

I shouldn't be, but am, frequently surprised by the new twists on marketing things that the web comes up with. Latest surprise?

From Amazon, where I thought I knew all the variations it presented and how it showed products, something called "My Habit" (a name that gives nothing away, unless you're a monk of a very odd kind: it sells limited run clothes)(associate link). What is interesting to me is the detail with which they present the clothes (including 360 views of them being worn). It's a "sale" site, but operates like a boutique: certain items are for sale each day, and the sale items will be offered at that price for three days, but there will be limited numbers available so that they expect to run out of items they put on sale. As with a boutique, shipping is not a consideration: shipping is free and returns are free. Minor sign up requirement to get the run of the site, but an Amazon account shortens that process to painless.

The site is being promoted, and they have a $10 off Promotion Code: through September 1, customers can save $10 on their order by entering the code MYHABITX at checkout. For those interested in the code, note that it is the name of the site My Habit and X the roman numeral for 10 for the discount.

Worth signing up for just to see the presentation.

An article making the rounds among those who take the risk that financiers pose seriously is this one, "Bankers Can't Avoid Risk by Hiding It." It's excellent, short, and goes right to the heart of why those cute models that bankers are relying on are stupidly unreliable, not scientific (even if they do look like math). It uses an analogy to high-school physics to make the point (Hooke's Law, about springs), but you don't have to follow that very closely to get the idea.

You should read all of it. But the moral of the story is this:

The only objective test of the accuracy of the model is how well the theoretical value matches market prices for traded instruments. And in a calibrated model it does that perfectly, but only at that one instant in time. Next week, or even tomorrow, or just an hour later, theory and practice will inevitably diverge. But if you are forever recalibrating, you never see this. Recalibration means that risk managers remain in blissful ignorance of the errors in their model and hence the risk. If anything ever gave a false sense of security, this is it. All that risk management has done is to hide the risk, making it harder to spot, to estimate and to hedge.

In other words, instead of helping you estimate risk, your model is helping you ignore it. Not very comforting. And, sadly, one of those situations where I'm sure that some government bureaucrat, mesmerized by all the numbers and blinking lights, will say, "Sounds reasonable to me." rather than actively exploring to what extent large banks are, ONCE AGAIN, failing to manage the risks they entail.

The San Diego Trolley looks nice: the bright red cars can be seen near most of the major arteries in town. Their website, here, appears to give information about routes. But schedules? That's a secret. "every 15 minutes" "every 20 minutes" "every half hour" may be useful notes for the people operating the system, but for passengers, the only useful question is "how long until the next trolley" -- and nothing will answer that question, including employees of the system, who will give varying answers ("right now" and "in half an hour"). Tickets? You'll have to guess. But you will pay a fine if you underpay. Spend %5 on the day pass for everyone. Unless you are near a designated holiday. Then other rates apply. No, we won't tell you about those, either.

I'm driving.

"Patriot Post US" occasionally has the most fun with news...

OK, here it is: time spent with a raconteur listening to his outsize adventures, silly mistakes, and the machinations of his nemesis, the clown show.

Righteous Indignation by Andrew Breitbart is a fun, interesting take on the news for the past couple of years, and certainly more worth remembering than most of the fact-challenged reportage of the incidents covered.

He writes entertainingly about the situations he gets himself into, and out of, by means of a camera and a quick response. Despite that, it is a story of a battle: one between a media whose story form is pre-written, and the facts on the ground. Breitbart is a game-changer because he has the video to back up what he says, and is relentless about asking for corrections when the major dailies screw up.

I note with amusement that the Kindle price is slightly higher than the paperback: get the paperback, and pass it on to someone else who enjoys a good laugh.

This press conference demonstrates why he's fun to listen to.