Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 (Core inflation - Unemployment).
Core inflation (all items less food and energy) is 2.6%
Unemployment (seasonally adjusted) is 4.5%
That leaves the prediction of the fed funds rate at 5.84%, while the actual target is 5.25% currently (with trading between 4 7/8 and 6 3/4, averaging about 5.28%, but with a spike in standard deviation that might indicate someone has noticed we're low.
Batten down the hatches, folks.